Description

This analysis provides a forecast of TRB prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-26 14.857996 18.087662 21.668524 25.908060 30.764312 36.127203 42.470505
2025-11-02 9.934897 14.016423 19.044196 25.581641 33.738727 43.460345 55.791994
2025-11-09 7.367367 11.726524 17.563559 25.708882 36.518244 50.098972 68.150233
2025-11-16 5.602155 9.960521 16.247817 25.569178 38.586357 55.648906 79.173560
2025-11-23 4.210241 8.357788 14.789010 24.878736 39.635052 59.714753 88.289488
2025-11-30 3.505224 7.649198 14.475721 25.688445 42.696384 66.519239 101.245866
2025-12-07 2.739365 6.637747 13.493063 25.307089 43.907797 70.728592 110.765489
2025-12-14 2.241581 5.988421 12.980242 25.551270 45.990792 76.196861 122.192075
2025-12-21 1.661616 5.005479 11.705046 24.358668 45.697832 78.111204 128.559895
2025-12-28 1.409175 4.660574 11.535033 24.998043 48.307557 84.410103 141.469668
2026-01-04 1.168121 4.268745 11.202729 25.292197 50.336461 89.878398 153.318160
2026-01-11 0.981072 3.954133 10.969582 25.724026 52.591546 95.758175 165.953323
2026-01-18 0.827532 3.700253 10.865524 26.467873 55.568887 103.130519 181.493672
2026-01-25 0.633364 3.245518 10.237197 26.131196 56.653645 107.573842 192.790445
2026-02-01 0.502759 2.932361 9.870439 26.260245 58.549218 113.381664 206.380484
2026-02-08 0.387661 2.609130 9.406680 26.118202 59.910383 118.332061 218.750998
2026-02-15 0.279693 2.237663 8.727937 25.416254 60.145947 121.370625 228.136043
2026-02-22 0.235952 2.127172 8.738499 26.239448 63.333827 129.535833 246.026927
2026-03-01 0.173055 1.865020 8.249173 25.851753 64.117625 133.567469 257.279294
2026-03-08 0.135535 1.709478 8.042921 26.099995 66.164692 139.862745 272.424482
2026-03-15 0.086355 1.407923 7.280995 24.887472 65.146935 140.666551 278.426726
2026-03-22 0.070100 1.331884 7.262279 25.537553 68.011908 148.524155 296.491289
2026-03-29 0.053700 1.227921 7.115953 25.836612 70.146072 155.118728 312.576056